2026
- April 29 The Infinity Machine
- April 5 FRI’s Forecast of AI Impacts
- March 2 War Claude
- February 12 Claude’s Constitution
- January 26 Defending the Rule of Law
- January 14 Corrigibility Scales To Value Alignment
- January 4 The Thinking Machine
- December 31 Safety Net When AIs Take Our Jobs
- December 21 What’s the Current Stock Market Bubble?
- December 3 Beating China to ASI
- November 3 Red Heart
- October 28 Food Tidbits 2
- September 26 If Anyone Builds It
- September 6 Comments on MIRI’s The Problem
- August 28 A Business Model for AI
- August 21 AI Near-Term Productivity Increases
- August 1 The Death of Cancer
- July 21 Future-Generation Government
- July 20 AI-Oriented Investments
- June 29 Waking up to AGI
- June 26 Super Agers
- May 1 The Ageless Brain
- April 25 AI 2027 Thoughts
- April 8 Rain of Tariffs
- March 14 AI Markets on Manifold
- February 16 Retrospective on my Investing Advice
- February 6 Medical Windfall Prizes
- February 4 Curb: A GLP-1 Supplement
- January 23 Uncontrollable
- January 13 Openwater’s Cancer Treatment
- December 31 Genesis
- December 29 Corrigibility should be an AI’s Only Goal
- December 18 Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation
- December 1 Drexler’s Nanotech Software
- November 10 Markets and the Election
- October 29 Criteria for Voting
- October 18 AI Prejudices: Practical Implications
- September 30 Peak Human Capital
- August 30 On the Edge
- August 5 Recession Watch 2024
- July 23 The Cancer Resolution?
- June 27 Situational Awareness
- June 18 Boycott OpenAI
- May 26 Everything Is Predictable
- April 23 Deep Utopia
- April 5 Exploring Whole Brain Emulation
- February 1 Manifold Markets
- January 12 A Theory of Everyone
- December 28 Dark Skies
- December 11 The Accidental Superpower
- November 16 When Will AIs Develop Long-Term Planning?
- October 5 Provably Safe AI
- September 28 The Coming Wave
- September 20 Require AGI to be Explainable
- September 13 Outlive
- June 29 Foom Liability
- June 14 How the World Became Rich
- June 6 How to Slow AI Development
- May 21 Four Battlegrounds
- April 22 OpenAI’s GPT-4 Safety Goals
- April 14 On Caring about our AI Progeny
- April 5 Pause AI Development?
- March 12 Bank Failures
- February 24 5 Year Predictions
- February 14 How Social Science Got Better
- February 6 Review of AI Alignment Progress
- January 8 Evidence under Adversarial Conditions
- December 30 Investing for a World Transformed by AI
- December 21 BioVie
- December 7 Investing Amid Low Expected Returns
- November 26 Review: LOVE in a simbox
- October 13 Cold War II
- September 27 Blood Tests
- September 23 What We Owe the Future
- September 10 True Age
- July 29 Drexler’s Nanotech Forecast
- July 20 The Manhattan Project
- July 15 QNR Prospects
- July 1 Agenty AGI – How Tempting?
- June 10 The ESG Alignment Problem
- May 2 Recession Watch
- April 21 Reward the Non-use of Medicine
- April 8 The Amish
- March 10 The Dawn of Everything
- January 26 The Resilient Society
- December 31 The Money Illusion
- December 23 AI Fire Alarm Scenarios
- December 10 Causes of Low Interest Rates
- November 18 The Recent Surge in Inflation
- October 15 Improve Paywalls
- October 8 Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite
- September 23 How did the Pandemic Affect Productivity?
- September 2 Shut Out
- July 19 The Explanation of Ideology
- July 1 New Dementia Trial Results
- June 21 Noise
- May 21 Ageless
- April 15 The Alignment Problem
- March 10 Functional Medicine
- February 6 Geography of Thought
- January 17 Dirt
- January 10 Notes on WEIRDest People
- January 2 The Cult of Smart
- December 26 The End of Alzheimer’s Program
- December 20 I Lose My COVID Bet
- December 11 The Flynn Effect Clarified
- November 28 WEIRDest People
- November 3 The Precipice
- October 30 Medical Certainty and Prestige
- October 21 Age Later
- October 14 Vote for Competence and Tolerance
- September 27 Equationizing Market Monetarism
- September 16 More Evidence for the Paleo Lifestyle
- September 5 Why is the Stock Market Rising?
- July 26 October Surprises, Part 2
- July 26 October Surprises, Part 1
- July 10 Lifespan
- June 25 Black Death at the Golden Gate
- June 17 The Driving Force
- May 27 Bond Market Bubble
- May 14 Depression 2020?
- April 14 Is R0 < 1 yet?
- April 11 Nutrient Power
- March 22 Some COVID-19 Notes
- February 16 Oura
- January 28 Move Your DNA
- January 17 Human Compatible
- December 29 Baze
- December 22 Another AI Winter?
- December 1 The Paleo Cure
- October 24 The AI Does Not Hate You
- October 13 The Future of Earning to Give
- October 6 Mouse Chow Questions
- September 26 Nifty 50 Stocks
- September 15 Prediction Machines
- August 17 Are Blue Zones Healthy?
- July 31 The Good Gut
- July 9 Food Tidbits
- June 17 The Finders
- May 22 The Longevity Diet
- April 24 Food Delivery Reviews
- April 13 the Metabolic Theory of Cancer
- March 18 Microbial Burden
- February 25 Ray Dalio’s Principles
- January 30 Drexler on AI Risk
- January 17 Bundle your Experiments
- January 10 Time Biases
- December 31 Ontological Crises
- December 20 Evaluating Donations to Cure Aging
- December 6 Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security
- November 16 Plant Paradox Diet Update
- October 28 The Great Stagnation
- October 14 Where Is My Flying Car?
- September 20 How Much does Nutrition Matter?
- July 31 Piketty
- July 27 UBI via Cryptocurrency?
- July 6 Pearl’s Book of Why
- June 20 The Plant Paradox
- June 7 The Life You Can Save
- May 11 Fork Science
- March 24 Another housing bubble?
- March 5 Surfing Uncertainty
- February 19 Predictions
- January 31 The Elephant in the Brain
- January 22 Warnings
- January 16 Cryptocurrencies
- January 5 Feeding Everyone No Matter What
- December 28 Ashwagandha and thyroid hormones
- December 21 Moore’s Law and AGI Timelines
- November 24 Inadequate Equilibria
- November 9 The Causes of War
- October 19 The End of Alzheimer’s
- September 29 Seasteading
- September 22 Peak Fossil Fuel
- September 13 Dealism
- September 4 Into the Gray Zone
- August 14 Darwin’s Unfinished Symphony
- July 28 Ems Evolve
- July 14 The Hungry Brain
- June 15 Daring Greatly
- June 1 Do AI Experts Exist?
- May 16 Seeing like a State
- April 27 Be Yourself
- March 31 The Measure of All Minds
- March 15 Political Order and Political Decay
- February 20 Other Minds
- February 15 Neural Networks are rather Transparent
- February 2 Aging is a Group-Selected Adaptation
- January 25 Superforecasting
- January 7 Rationality Quotient
- December 22 The AI Safety Landscape
- December 14 Models of Willpower
- November 27 Doing Good Better
- November 9 Market Reactions to the Election
- October 19 Anxiety Anxiety
- September 30 The Vital Question
- September 25 Science as Compression
- September 14 Logical Induction
- September 7 The Moral Economy
- August 28 AI Phase Change?
- August 18 Morning Pages
- August 4 Financial Procrastination
- July 21 Smart Animals?
- July 8 Childhood’s Em
- June 20 Made-Up Minds
- June 8 AGI Timelines
- May 24 The Age of Em
- May 6 The Midas Paradox
- April 17 The Human Advantage
- April 13 The Secret of Our Success
- February 25 Fed Policy and Inflation Forecasts
- February 19 Sense of Style
- January 26 Ethical Diet Reviewed
- January 15 Observing Neuron Behavior
- January 2 Hive Mind
- December 18 Eureka Factor
- November 6 Uploaded Bonobos
- October 12 Mirror Neurons
- September 30 Conversational Spontaneity
- September 24 Upside-Down Index Investing Strategies
- September 12 War! What Is It Good For?
- August 6 Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels
- July 24 Being Mindful of Beeminder
- July 7 Sense of Structure
- June 7 Aletheia
- May 17 Mission: Heirloom (Berkeley)
- April 29 The Measure of Civilization
- April 14 Masters of the Word
- March 26 Dietary Zinc/Copper Ratio
- March 12 The Charisma Myth
- February 8 Alternate Day Calorie Restriction
- January 8 Ethical diets
- January 5 A Universe from Nothing
- December 20 Fragile by Design
- December 10 Poor Economics
- November 29 How China Became Capitalist
- November 10 Bonds That Make Us Free
- October 21 Value-Focused Thinking
- October 4 Noise Cancelling Headphone
- September 8 How the West Won
- August 25 The Depths
- August 14 Folate
- July 31 AGI Foom
- July 28 Superintelligence
- July 17 Crickets
- June 30 The Hidden Reality
- June 16 Rule of the Clan
- June 2 Ambronite
- May 15 Drugs without Patents
- April 14 Our Mathematical Universe
- March 21 Nutritional Meals
- March 2 The Great Degeneration
- February 13 Our Final Invention
- December 21 Wedding
- November 20 Self Comes to Mind
- October 15 Quantified Self Conference
- September 25 Reinventing Philanthropy
- August 31 War
- August 9 Singularity Hypotheses
- July 23 I’ve Moved
- June 26 The Origins of Political Order
- June 24 More Ancestral Diet Evidence
- June 8 Radical Abundance
- May 27 The Motivation Hacker
- April 26 Paleofantasy
- April 12 Charity for Corporations
- April 2 Color Enhancement
- March 16 Why Nations Fail
- March 3 Anti-Paleo Diet
- February 8 Error Statistics
- January 10 Talking20
- December 28 How to Measure Anything
- December 18 The Automated Self
- December 4 Food and Western Disease
- November 26 CFTC Sues Intrade
- November 11 Willpower
- October 29 The Signal and the Noise
- October 10 Quantified Self Conference
- September 22 Cholesterol, Saturated Fat and ApoE4
- September 5 Eating Insects
- August 18 Omega-6 Revisited
- July 27 The Righteous Mind
- July 22 Sleep Improvements
- July 3 The Intelligence Paradox
- June 21 Seasteading Conference 2012
- May 27 Omega-6
- April 20 The Beginning of Infinity
- March 26 Neanderthal Brains and Eye Size
- March 9 The Institutional Revolution
- February 25 Inside Jokes
- February 12 Manias, Panics and Crashes
- January 29 1493
- January 15 Thinking, Fast and Slow
- December 28 Islands of Genius
- December 15 3 Idiots
- December 7 Protein
- November 23 The Better Angels of Our Nature
- November 23 Kratom Update
- November 7 The Taylor Rule
- October 28 Bitcoin
- October 19 Kratom
- October 10 RNA in our food
- September 26 Interplay
- September 5 Alexithymia
- August 23 Expected Returns
- August 8 European financial crisis
- July 25 The Ego Tunnel
- July 6 The Frequency of Wars
- June 18 The Rational Optimist
- June 5 Beyond Boundaries
- May 1 The Honor Code
- April 15 War and Peace and War
- April 6 Bay Area Waterfalls
- March 9 Avoid News
- February 15 Ashkenazi and the Industrial Revolution
- February 2 Assorted Links
- January 24 How To Win Friends and Influence People
- January 20 Trans-fats in commonly sold plant oils
- January 16 Going Inside
- December 28 Sex at Dawn
- December 23 Doctors and Smart Drugs
- December 15 Counterclockwise
- December 2 Relational Mobility and Self-Disclosure
- November 19 Snowball Earth and Complex Life
- November 8 Wired for War
- November 4 Leadership and Self-Deception
- November 3 The bacterial part of our bodies
- October 27 Prizes
- October 20 Switch
- October 14 Doctor/Hospital ratings
- October 5 Choke
- September 26 Brainiac Dating
- September 14 Brain Preservation Prize
- August 31 Drive
- August 26 Memory and the Flynn Effect
- August 17 Quantifying Artificial Intelligence
- August 12 Disadvantages of Stories
- July 31 Probability Theory
- July 20 Hierarchy in the Forest
- July 8 Breakdown of Will
- June 3 Awakening Giants
- May 11 Stock Market Liquidity
- April 30 Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
- April 20 Happiness from the Inside Out
- April 13 Drive Slower
- April 2 ADHD and Autism
- March 11 This Time is Different
- March 2 The Chimera Hypothesis
- February 22 Diamond Trees for Carbon Sequestration
- February 12 A Splendid Exchange
- January 29 Impro
- January 19 Foresight 2010
- January 9 City of Gold
- December 27 Moral Machines
- December 23 The Value of Cute Kittens
- December 12 What Intelligence Tests Miss
- December 1 Finding Alpha
- November 18 Outliers
- November 11 Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics
- October 28 Medical Tourism Seasteads
- October 18 Life Expectancy and the Business Cycle
- October 4 The 2nd Seasteading Conference
- September 25 Turning the Repugnant Conclusion into Utopia
- September 14 Assorted Links
- August 28 Meltdown
- August 26 Depression Economics
- August 21 Create Your Own Economy (?)
- August 2 More on the Flynn Effect
- July 21 The Law Market
- July 10 Human Enhancement
- June 23 Greatness
- June 15 Why He Didn’t Call You Back
- June 4 Sitting is unhealthy?
- May 20 Historical Dynamics
- May 5 Economics of Piracy
- April 28 Good and Real
- April 17 Evidence-Based Technical Analysis
- April 8 Hollywood Economics
- April 3 Paranoid Debating
- March 27 Autism and Rationality
- March 15 The 10,000 Year Explosion
- March 4 Stroke of Insight
- February 26 Influence
- February 16 Livejournal
- February 6 The Spriggan Mirror
- January 29 Body Language
- January 21 Honest Signals
- January 14 Imprinted Brain Theory of Autism
- January 7 A Different Kind of Boy
- December 29 This Is Burning Man
- December 23 Commons and Transaction Costs
- December 15 The Soulful Science?
- December 11 Chinese Stock Risks
- December 4 The Indian Clerk
- November 29 Convergence08
- November 20 Global Catastrophic Risks conference
- November 13 Automated Market Maker Results
- November 6 Intrade versus FiveThirtyEight
- November 1 Automated Market Maker Changes
- November 1 Stock Market Crashes
- October 26 Automated Market Maker Problems
- October 21 None of the above for president
- October 14 Seasteading08
- October 5 Misbehavior of Markets
- September 29 Wall Street vs Intrade
- September 25 Global Catastrophic Risks
- September 17 Moral Hazard with Credit Default Swaps
- September 14 “Junk DNA” is important
- September 7 Intrade Notes
- August 30 Monkeyluv
- August 28 Oil Volatility
- August 21 Let Their People Come
- August 17 Archaic Science Fiction
- August 12 Human Accomplishment
- July 31 Ending Aging
- July 24 How to spend $10 trillion
- July 18 Infotopia
- July 10 Why Humans Cooperate
- July 4 Reasonable Rx
- June 19 Cultural Difference
- June 13 Bad Samaritans
- June 4 Counting Sheep
- May 11 Negative Interest Rates
- April 29 Disease influences Science?
- April 22 Seasteading Institute
- April 15 Predictocracy (part 2)
- April 15 Predictocracy (part 1)
- April 8 The Birth of Plenty
- April 1 Greenspan’s Age of Turbulence
- March 25 Steve Omohundro on AI Risks
- March 18 Futarchy Mailing List
- March 11 Seeing Red
- March 4 Iraq policies
- February 24 Carbon Sequestration Prizes
- February 11 Electability of Clinton, Obama
- February 5 Poverty and Discrimination
- January 25 The Fed’s Surprise
- January 18 More on Presidential Decision Markets
- January 14 The First Word
- December 18 The Execution Channel
- December 11 AI Motivated by Compassion and Respect
- December 2 Rebelling against our genes
- November 14 Cool It
- October 31 Drug Prizes instead of Patent Exclusivity
- October 23 Chinese Stock Bubble
- October 22 Support the Troops
- October 16 Cuban Health
- October 8 Flynn Effect Explained
- October 1 Farewell to Alms
- September 27 Life expectancy national variations
- September 19 Causes of African Poverty
- September 18 Trans-Simianism
- September 7 Beyond AI
- August 30 How to Survive a Robot Uprising
- August 24 How Is Quantum Field Theory Possible?
- August 16 The Bottom Billion
- August 7 Origin of Global Warming Theory
- July 31 Parfit’s Reasons and Persons
- July 25 Business Fairy Tales
- July 23 Gourmet Fast Food
- July 14 Black Rednecks
- June 29 Astronomical Waste
- June 20 Why Not?
- June 12 How to Spend $50 Billion
- May 31 The Purchase of Intimacy
- May 28 Peer Review
- May 7 Jury Incentives
- April 30 Mindless Eating
- April 24 Salt
- April 18 Voluntary Slavery
- March 27 Good Intentions
- March 19 Smolin’s Trouble With Physics
- March 6 Whose Freedom?
- February 24 Charity and ideology
- February 14 Dying to Win
- February 10 Virgin Earth Challenge
- February 5 Caffeine and the CYP1A2 gene
- January 31 Money buys happiness?
- January 29 Iraq compared to other revolutions
- January 24 Information Markets
- January 21 LibraryThing
- January 15 Wisdom of Crowds
- January 12 Szabo on Global Warming
- January 8 Should Wikipedia run ads?
- January 5 An Inconvenient Truth
- December 16 Making Complex Things from DNA
- December 11 Shaming versus Prison
- December 11 New blog
- December 8 Fiji Coup Postponed due to Rugby
- December 2 Asteroid Risks
- November 27 God Hates Figs
- November 27 Envy
- November 19 Voter Rationality
- November 10 Electing to Fight
- November 2 Social Mindscapes
- October 26 Singing Neanderthals
- October 25 Synthetic Worlds
- October 18 Knowledge and the Wealth Of Nations
- October 11 Happiness
- October 3 No Two Alike
- September 26 AI Risks
- September 22 Expert Political Judgment
- September 20 Evolution’s Rainbow
- September 12 Stumbling on Happiness
- September 4 A Stock with a Strange Price History
- September 3 Undercover Economist
- August 24 Time
- August 16 Tradesports Claim Definition
- July 25 Kanzi
- July 10 Net Neutrality
- June 28 Last Well Person
- June 21 Unusual Bodies
- June 14 1491
- June 9 King George Watch
- June 2 Human Enhancement Conference
- June 2 Government Versus Wetlands
- May 27 Operation Yao Ming
- April 28 The Party of Death?
- April 21 Diet and the Environment
- April 16 Quantum Computing
- April 12 When Genius Failed
- April 5 The End of Faith
- March 23 The Ethical Slut
- March 15 Fantastic Voyage
- March 6 Adapting Minds
- February 27 China’s Sexual Imbalance
- February 20 Cover-up in air marshal shooting?
- February 13 Deliberation Day
- February 6 Chinese Capitalists
- January 30 The World Is Flat
- January 25 China’s Politburo
- January 20 The Armchair Economist
- January 17 Oil Futures
- January 9 More on the Housing Bubble
- December 27 Underground Education
- December 20 Accelerando!
- December 18 Betting on Sex
- December 13 Women, Fire, and Dangerous Things
- December 6 Prediction Markets Summit
- November 29 You are what you eat
- November 23 The Great Divergence
- November 17 U.S. Aid to Al Qaeda
- November 7 Yes on California Prop 77
- November 6 Intellectual Pseudo Property
- November 2 Judicial Bias
- October 26 Kurzweil and Human Capital
- October 25 Gay Marriage
- October 18 The God Gene
- October 17 CFTC and Tradesports
- October 17 Unconventional Success
- October 14 Traffic Cops
- October 7 Serenity
- September 29 Housing Bubble Peaking?
- September 26 Accelerating Change Conference
- September 20 The Singularity Is Near
- September 14 Credibility of Hurricane Warnings
- September 13 Hedge Fund Risks
- September 9 Shooting government agents in Louisiana
- September 6 Gas Price Controls
- September 5 New Orleans Automobility
- September 1 OkCupid
- August 18 Intuition Error and Heritage
- July 29 Nanofuture
- July 21 Freakonomics
- July 14 Terrorism Futures
- June 30 Dubai
- June 24 Blank Slate
- June 17 Flynn Effect Ending?
- June 14 Problems with Democracy
- June 9 Smell
- May 27 Fixing Social Security
- May 19 Intangibles
- May 16 Buy the Yuan?
- May 4 Animals in Translation
- April 27 FAB
- April 19 Does democracy work?
- April 15 Afghanistan report
- April 13 Delicious Library
- April 7 Change in blog software
- April 1 On Intelligence
- March 24 Truth and Human Nature
- March 16 Anthropic Bias
- February 21 Web form inefficiency
- February 15 VeganEssentials
- February 8 What a Futarchy should maximize
- February 8 Autism
- January 31 Who’s the enemy in Iraq?
- January 31 Alarmism
- January 26 Iraqi Elections
- January 22 Entrepreneurial Economics
- January 19 Catastrophe
- January 9 Foreign Aid
- December 23 Happy Newtonmas
- December 23 Chinese wages
- December 17 Imperial Hubris
- December 16 Hunger
- December 15 What is Thought?
- December 15 Commodifying Communism
- December 9 Innovation and Its Discontents
- December 3 The Paper Dollar
- November 29 Report from the Foresight Conference, part 2
- November 25 The Dangers of Ocean Spray Cranberry Juice
- November 19 Market Reaction to the Election
- November 18 Charity Angels
- November 11 Accelerating Change Conference
- November 3 Tradesports compared to the pollsters
- November 2 Paper versus plastic voting
- November 1 Senators and Intelligence
- October 29 Manipulating futures markets
- October 29 Seasteading
- October 29 Badnarik for President
- October 26 Report from the Foresight Conference, part 1
- October 21 Greenspan and bubbles
- October 19 California Senate Race
- October 14 Idea Futures markets obsolete?
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