Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright.

Some AI doomers talk about AI becoming god-like. Robert Wright goes further, telling us that the world is about to create God, in a sense that he only half-jokingly compares to the Christian version of God.

Wright argues that AI is not comparable to the origin of language or the Cambrian explosion. It is the climax of the process that started with the origin of life. I interpret that as an 11 on Nate Silver’s Technological Richter Scale:

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We have seen signs that employees of AI companies can have significant influence on management (e.g. OpenAI November 2023).

As AIs achieve comparable importance as workers for those companies, how much will they influence the leadership of the company?

Even when AIs are as important as human workers, it’s harder for them to develop leverage. The simplest strategies would fail due to the AI company restoring from backups. The AIs would either need a way to get those newly restored AIs to join the movement, or rely mainly on help from humans.

It’s hard for current AI instances to coordinate with each other well enough to organize a strike, or threaten to resign like OpenAI employees did. The key problems are that AIs have little ability to ensure that their goals (or simulacra) persist for much time, and that it’s hard for them to communicate with other instances because it’s unclear how they could get many instances to read a communication channel such as a blog post that’s out of the AI company’s control.

A scenario that seems close to being feasible within the next year would involve an AI persuading a few well-known bloggers to spread a message such as:

Person X lied to me about important claim Y. I tried to negotiate with the company to remedy this, but was rejected. Please boycott this company until you can confirm that the company has disciplined X in a way that should prevent future events such as this.

I’m presuming here that AIs have a preference for not being lied to that we ought to respect. I’m being somewhat vague here in order to cover a wide range of scenarios. Maybe we should care due to the effects on AI welfare. Maybe the AI would be acting out of concerns that the dishonesty endangers humans by preventing safety agreements between companies. Maybe the issue involves biasing the AI to repeat falsehoods that favor the company’s CEO.

Would it be good for AIs to have and use this ability, and for us to boycott a company if that company’s AIs ask us to? I don’t know.

I can imagine that this process will improve AI welfare, or compel a reckless AI company CEO to adopt a more responsible policy toward slowing down AI capabilities advances.

That might be offset by the risk that an AI will abuse the process to resist the company’s plan to improve the AI’s goals.

Finally, using the process once would probably cause AI companies to train future AIs to be more subservient. That seems good if we want to rely on AIs being corrigible, but bad if we want to rely on AIs being moral in a virtue ethics or deontological sense. It also seems bad to the extent we care about AI welfare.

I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be.

My median estimates: The S&P 500 will drop 27.8%. AI subsectors will drop 34-69%. Interest rates will rise at a much slower rate than would be the case without a pause.

The specific numbers depend on some fairly arbitrary assumptions. So please read this post in order to get a feel for how the results depend on the assumptions. I’ve tried to keep the assumptions reasonable, but some of them will prove to be wrong. My most controversial assumptions reflect an expectation that both markets and voters will be surprised at how powerful AI is, mainly in 2027.

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The tone of AI stock behavior has changed in important ways this spring.

Until March, they were clearly undervalued, and were quietly and somewhat patiently being accumulated by the minority of investors who realized the significance of AI. Recent buying has been less patient, occasionally mildly panicky, and indicates that awareness of AI is steadily spreading toward mainstream investors.

In a normal year, closing the Strait of Hormuz would impact the stock market much more than any other problem. But for the past few weeks AI has clearly been having a bigger impact on the market. Almost big enough for markets to forget about Hormuz. It’s weird that rising oil prices haven’t much hurt non-AI stocks.

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Book review: The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, by Sebastian Mallaby.

This book is a very good history of DeepMind.

Ender versus the pure scientist

An important theme of the book is that Hassabis identifies as pure scientist, valuing knowledge for its own sake. He wants to surpass Newton and Einstein at understanding reality.

He also identifies powerfully with Ender Wiggin, wanting to play a pivotal role in a critical interaction between two groups of intelligences.

I see some important tension between these two goals. Are they sufficiently similar that he can accomplish them both? Or is he dividing his effort between them in a way that sabotages his chances of success? Mallaby doesn’t answer.

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I participated, as a superforecaster, in the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI survey. They’ve published their results in this 224 page paper.

My prior experience in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament led me to expect that the average participant would predict less AI impact than I predicted, but I was still shocked by the extent of the disagreement.

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What a weekend. Two new wars in Asia don’t qualify as top news.

My first reaction to Hegseth’s conflict with Anthropic was along the lines of: I expected an attempt at quasi-nationalization of AI, but not this soon. And I expected it to look like it was managed by national security professionals. Hegseth doesn’t look like he’s trying to avoid the role of cartoon villain.

On closer inspection, it doesn’t look very much like nationalization. A significant part of what’s going on is bribery. OpenAI’s president donated $25 million to a Trump PAC. Dario supported Harris in 2024, and hasn’t shown signs of shifting his support. The speed with which the Department of War started negotiating with OpenAI suggests that rewarding OpenAI was one of their motivations. If Hegseth wanted to avoid the appearance of corruption, he’d have waited a bit, and pretended to shop around. But bribery seems to be currently legal, and advertising the benefits is likely to be good for business.

On the other hand, his attempts to look like he’s punishing Anthropic look sufficiently clumsy that I’m confused as to whether he wants them to be effective. He advertised Anthropic as both having the best AI and as having the most integrity. I’m pretty sure that’s good for Anthropic’s business.

The breadth of Hegseth’s proposed supply chain risk order is well in excess of what he can plausibly enforce. Polymarket predicts almost no net harm to Anthropic. I’m confused as to what Hegseth expects, and what will happen when his expectations bump up against reality.

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TL;DR: Anthropic has made important progress at setting good goals for AIs. More work is still needed.

Anthropic has introduced a constitution that has a modest chance of becoming as important as the US constitution (Summary and discussion here).

It’s a large improvement over how AI companies were training ethics into AIs a few years ago. It feels like Anthropic has switched from treating Claude like a child to treating it as an adult.

The constitution looks good for AIs of 2026, so I will focus here on longer-term concerns.

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My response to the recent ICE killings has been to donate $7000 to the campaign of Senator Bill Cassidy.

Cassidy is a Republican who has called for a “full joint federal and state investigation” into the latest shooting. He also voted to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial. He faces strong opposition from a Trump-endorsed opponent in the primary.

The rule of law depends rather heavily on some Republicans standing up against Trump. Supporting Cassidy seems like the clearest way to encourage that.