4 comments on “AGI Timelines

  1. On point #4, I don’t see the rationale for presuming “that AI researcher productivity is more sensitive to IQ than is, say, truck driver productivity.” On #2, yes some people seem to think single AI subfields could solve the entire AI problem, which I see as implausible given that different subfields mainly take on different tasks, instead of using different approaches on the same tasks.

  2. The effect of a larger percentage of em growth being due to increased capital, vs. innovation, seems a clear effect and large, and plausibly outweighs the IQ effect you speculate.

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