6 comments on “More on Presidential Decision Markets

  1. Pingback: Implied Prices for Robin Hanson’s Presidential Decision-Aid Markets | Midas Oracle .ORG

  2. You wrote somewhere else :
    “A large fraction of the trades in NONDEM.PRES-GOVT.DEBT and NONDEM.PRES-TROOPS.IRAQ fit a pattern of driving the price down.”
    You should not be too surprised, you have provided a free bet actually you have paid somebody to bet on a Republican President funded by shorting NONDEM.PRES-GOVT.DEBT or NONDEM.PRES-TROOPS.IRAQ and they will win regardless of the outcome.

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