2 comments on “Is R0 < 1 yet?

  1. I recently encountered this speculative theory about SARS-CoV-2 / COVID19 — I can’t personally evaluate it (except to say that it doesn’t sound like nonsense), but it is brief and well-written, and important if true:


    Briefly, this author proposes (with a detailed mechanism) that there could have been a mostly “silent” first wave of one variant of the virus, followed by a second wave of another variant, which interact via “antibody dependent enhancement” to make people much sicker on average who got one variant and later got the other, than if they got either variant alone.

    (This is only indirectly related to your prediction — if true, it makes the situation more complicated to predict, and I guess more dangerous.)

  2. Pingback: I Lose My COVID Bet | Bayesian Investor Blog

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