7 comments on “Expert Political Judgment

  1. Pingback: Everything about Prediction Markets » Blog Archive » Expert Political Judgment

  2. Hal Finney has apparently created a test that implements Tetlock’s Fox versus Hedgehog scale. I took it, trying to correct for the bias I got by reading Tetlock’s book (although I doubt I know how well I corrected for that bias), and got +2 (weakly toward the fox side of neutral).

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  4. Re: why do simple autoregressive models outperform humans?
    Meehl found that even _randomly_ weighted regressions outperformed humans.
    One explanation: even randomly weighted models tend to put nonzero weight on all factors being considered. People have a hard time with more than 2 or 3, effectively zeroing the rest.

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