bias

All posts tagged bias

Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright.

Some AI doomers talk about AI becoming god-like. Robert Wright goes further, telling us that the world is about to create God, in a sense that he only half-jokingly compares to the Christian version of God.

Wright argues that AI is not comparable to the origin of language or the Cambrian explosion. It is the climax of the process that started with the origin of life. I interpret that as an 11 on Nate Silver’s Technological Richter Scale:

Continue Reading

TL;DR: Anthropic has made important progress at setting good goals for AIs. More work is still needed.

Anthropic has introduced a constitution that has a modest chance of becoming as important as the US constitution (Summary and discussion here).

It’s a large improvement over how AI companies were training ethics into AIs a few years ago. It feels like Anthropic has switched from treating Claude like a child to treating it as an adult.

The constitution looks good for AIs of 2026, so I will focus here on longer-term concerns.

Continue Reading

Here are some scattered comments about the 2024 elections.

I was glad to have Manifold Markets and Election Betting Odds to watch the results. I want numbers, not encumbered by the storytellers and emotions of the news media. I also watched the odds that Nate Silver tried to update, but that was a total flop.

Peak Polarization

I see many weak hints that the polarization of the US has subsided compared to 2020.

Continue Reading

Book review: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver’s latest work straddles the line between journalistic inquiry and subject matter expertise.

“On the Edge” offers a valuable lens through which to understand analytical risk-takers.

The River versus The Village

Silver divides the interesting parts of the world into two tribes.

On his side, we have “The River” – a collection of eccentrics typified by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and professional gamblers, who tend to be analytical, abstract, decoupling, competitive, critical, independent-minded (contrarian), and risk-tolerant.

Continue Reading

Book review: How Social Science Got Better: Overcoming Bias with More Evidence, Diversity, and Self-Reflection, by Matt Grossmann.

It’s easy for me to become disenchanted with social science when so much of what I read about it is selected from the most pessimistic and controversial reports.

With this book, Grossmann helped me to correct my biased view of the field. While plenty of valid criticisms have been made about social science, many of the complaints lobbed against it are little more than straw men.

Grossmann offers a sweeping overview of the progress that the field has made over the past few decades. His tone is optimistic and hearkens back to Steven Pinker’s Better Angels of our Nature, while maintaining a rigorous (but dry) style akin to the less controversial sections of Robin Hanson’s Age of Em. Throughout the book, Grossmann aims to outdo even Wikipedia in his use of a neutral point of view.

Continue Reading

Book review: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein.

Doctors are more willing to order a test for patients they see in the morning than for those they see late in the day.

Asylum applicants chances of prevailing may be as low as 5% or as high as 88% purely due to which judge hears their case.

Clouds Make Nerds Look Good, in the sense that university admissions officers give higher weight to academic attributes on cloudy days.

These are examples of what the authors describe as an important and neglected problem.

A more precise description of the book’s topic is variations in judgment, with judgment defined as “measurement in which the instrument is a human mind”.

Continue Reading