4 comments on “Cold War II

  1. Why might Taiwan semiconductors be boycotted? There seems to be a strong consensus that if the mainland tries to seize control of them, they will receive only scorched earth. Destroying a semiconductor plant is easy and fast; many people have access to the tools needed to do so quickly as a necessary part of their job, and hostility toward the CCP is high enough to expect this to happen at any captured or soon-to-be-captured plant within the first week, or even the first day.

    Destruction of the Taiwan industry is not a boycott, and seems moderately unlikely to behave like one.

  2. I didn’t intend to make any forecast about whether Taiwan semiconductor factories would be destroyed. I expect a lot of rhetoric attempting to convince Beijing that they would be destroyed, regardless of what would happen.

    For my investment purposes, destruction seems likely to have fairly similar implications to a boycott.

  3. > The U.S. has often acted as if it were a world government without having acquired the necessary legitimacy.

    Though the links supporting this sentence seem a bit niche, well put, and insightful post overall, as usual.

    > Could Beijing accomplish its goals without acts that the West would feel compelled to treat as war?

    Of course it does, analogous to what the U.S. ought do — strive to increase its legitimacy and attractiveness. With respect to Taiwan, simply by becoming much richer and with far more opportunity. It’s made lots of progress, which it will undermine through lack of patience. Russia could have been in the same boat with respect to Ukraine.

    Too bad for all that the payoffs faced by politicians in otherwise seemingly very different systems don’t work like this.

    p.s. Your website over https (which many browsers want to force these days) obtains “site not found”. I had to manually visit the http version and ignore browser warnings.

  4. Pingback: Review of AI Alignment Progress | Bayesian Investor Blog

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