Bayesian Investor Blog

Context: looking for an alternative to a pause on AI development.

There’s some popular desire for software decisions to be explainable when used for decisions such as whether to grant someone a loan. That desire is not sufficient reason for possibly crippling AI progress. But in combination with other concerns about AI, it seems promising.

Much of this popular desire likely comes from people who have been (or expect to be) denied loans, and who want to scapegoat someone or something to avoid admitting that they look unsafe to lend to because they’ve made poor decisions. I normally want to avoid regulations that are supported by such motives.

Yet an explainability requirement shows some promise at reducing the risks from rogue AIs.

I’m wondering how selection effects will influence the first serious attempt by an AGI to take over the world.

My question here is inspired by thoughts about people who say AGI couldn’t conquer the world because it will depend on humans to provide electricity, semiconductors, etc.

I previously said:

I see little hope of a good agreement to pause AI development unless leading AI researchers agree that a pause is needed, and help write the rules. Even with that kind of expert help, there’s a large risk that the rules will be ineffective and cause arbitrary collateral damage.

Yoshua Bengio has a reputation that makes him one of the best people to turn to for such guidance. He has now suggested restrictions on AI development that are targeted specifically at agenty AI.

If turned into a clear guideline, that would be a much more desirable method of slowing the development of dangerous AI. Alas, Bengio seems to admit that he isn’t yet able to provide that clarity.