Artificial Intelligence

I have canceled my OpenAI subscription in protest over OpenAI’s lack of ethics.

In particular, I object to:

  • threats to confiscate departing employees’ equity unless those employees signed a life-long non-disparagement contract
  • Sam Altman’s pattern of lying about important topics

I’m trying to hold AI companies to higher standards than I use for typical companies, due to the risk that AI companies will exert unusual power.

A boycott of OpenAI subscriptions seems unlikely to gain enough attention to meaningfully influence OpenAI. Where I hope to make a difference is by discouraging competent researchers from joining OpenAI unless they clearly reform (e.g. by firing Altman). A few good researchers choosing not to work at OpenAI could make the difference between OpenAI being the leader in AI 5 years from now versus being, say, a distant 3rd place.

A year ago, I thought that OpenAI equity would be a great investment, but that I had no hope of buying any. But the value of equity is heavily dependent on trust that a company will treat equity holders fairly. The legal system helps somewhat with that, but it can be expensive to rely on the legal system. OpenAI’s equity is nonstandard in ways that should create some unusual uncertainty. Potential employees ought to question whether there’s much connection between OpenAI’s future profits and what equity holders will get.

How does OpenAI’s behavior compare to other leading AI companies?

I’m unsure whether Elon Musk’s xAI deserves a boycott, partly because I’m unsure whether it’s a serious company. Musk has a history of breaking contracts that bears some similarity to OpenAI’s attitude. Musk also bears some responsibility for SpaceX requiring non-disparagement agreements.

Google has shown some signs of being evil. As far as I can tell, DeepMind has been relatively ethical. I’ve heard clear praise of Demis Hassabis’s character from Aubrey de Grey, who knew Hassabis back in the 1990s. Probably parts of Google ought to be boycotted, but I encourage good researchers to work at DeepMind.

Anthropic seems to be a good deal more ethical than OpenAI. I feel comfortable paying them for a subscription to Claude Opus. My evidence concerning their ethics is too weak to say more than that.

P.S. Some of the better sources to start with for evidence against Sam Altman / OpenAI:

But if you’re thinking of working at OpenAI, please look at more than just those sources.

Book review: Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World, by Nick Bostrom.

Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence, triggered expressions of concern. In his latest work, he describes his hopes for the distant future, presumably to limit the risk that fear of AI will lead to a The Butlerian Jihad-like scenario.

While Bostrom is relatively cautious about endorsing specific features of a utopia, he clearly expresses his dissatisfaction with the current state of the world. For instance, in a footnoted rant about preserving nature, he writes:

Imagine that some technologically advanced civilization arrived on Earth … Imagine they said: “The most important thing is to preserve the ecosystem in its natural splendor. In particular, the predator populations must be preserved: the psychopath killers, the fascist goons, the despotic death squads … What a tragedy if this rich natural diversity were replaced with a monoculture of healthy, happy, well-fed people living in peace and harmony.” … this would be appallingly callous.

The book begins as if addressing a broad audience, then drifts into philosophy that seems obscure, leading me to wonder if it’s intended as a parody of aimless academic philosophy.

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[I mostly wrote this to clarify my thoughts. I’m unclear whether this will be valuable for readers. ]

I expect that within a decade, AI will be able to do 90% of current human jobs. I don’t mean that 90% of humans will be obsolete. I mean that the average worker could delegate 90% of their tasks to an AGI.

I feel confused about what this implies for the kind of AI long-term planning and strategizing that would enable an AI to create large-scale harm if it is poorly aligned.

Is the ability to achieve long-term goals hard for an AI to develop?

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Disagreements related to what we value seem to explain maybe 10% of the disagreements over AI safety. This post will try to explain how I think about which values I care about perpetuating to the distant future.

Robin Hanson helped to clarify the choices in Which Of Your Origins Are You?:

The key hard question here is this: what aspects of the causal influences that lead to you do you now embrace, and which do you instead reject as “random” errors that you want to cut out? Consider two extremes.
At one extreme, one could endorse absolutely every random element that contributed to any prior choice or intuition.

At the other extreme, you might see yourself as primarily the result of natural selection, both of genes and of memes, and see your core non-random value as that of doing the best you can to continue to “win” at that game. … In this view, everything about you that won’t help your descendants be selected in the long run is a random error that you want to detect and reject.

In other words, the more unique criteria we have about what we want to preserve into the distant future, the less we should expect to succeed.

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Book review: The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century’s Greatest Dilemma, by Mustafa Suleyman.

An author with substantial AI expertise has attempted to discuss AI in terms that the average book reader can understand.

The key message: AI is about to become possibly the most important event in human history.

Maybe 2% of readers will change their minds as a result of reading the book.

A large fraction of readers will come in expecting the book to be mostly hype. They won’t look closely enough to see why Suleyman is excited.

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Context: looking for an alternative to a pause on AI development.

There’s some popular desire for software decisions to be explainable when used for decisions such as whether to grant someone a loan. That desire is not sufficient reason for possibly crippling AI progress. But in combination with other concerns about AI, it seems promising.

Much of this popular desire likely comes from people who have been (or expect to be) denied loans, and who want to scapegoat someone or something to avoid admitting that they look unsafe to lend to because they’ve made poor decisions. I normally want to avoid regulations that are supported by such motives.

Yet an explainability requirement shows some promise at reducing the risks from rogue AIs.

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