I’ve been shifting my investments to more AI-focused bets.
Here’s an overview of my larger positions, in descending order of how eager I am to recommend further purchases now:
- MU – AI is memory hungry, and MU is in a good position for almost NVDA-like growth
- CSIQ – solar, for AI-related power demand
- ASML – semiconductor equipment
- SCIA – semiconductor equipment
- GOOGL – for TPUs, DeepMind, and Waymo
- SMCI – datacenter
- NVDA
- AMPX (and AMPX.WS) – batteries suitable for drones
- TSSI – datacenter
- CLS – close to half of its business involves datacenters
- PDEX – a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
- MTG – a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
- ASTS – expanding cell phone coverage; I’ll likely sell when I can get long-term gains
Short positions:
- SP500 futures – hedging against risks such as tariffs
- SOFR futures dated 2029 through 2032 – betting that interest rates will rise due to AI
- WMT – it’s got a high PE ratio, and little sign of growth
[This is not at all a complete list, as I have smaller positions in something like 150 other companies.]
AI stocks are likely to form a bubble someday, but I’m guessing the peak of that bubble is more than a year away.
I still have some concerns about tariff-related damage causing some declines sometime this year. I’m optimistic that the courts will strike down the per-country tariffs this fall. It shouldn’t take long for the country to recover from the tariff damage once the tariffs have been removed.
Beware that even in a strong bull market, there will be periodic scares, such as January’s DeepSeek-trigger panic, that cause sharp drops in leading stocks. AI-related stocks had a big rally in June, and are likely to consolidate for a while before the next such rally.