Bayesian Investor Blog

Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator

Human Accomplishment

Posted by Peter on August 12, 2008
Posted in: Book Reviews, Life, the Universe, and Everything, Science and Technology. Tagged: bias, history.

Book review: Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950 by Charles Murray.
I was reluctant to read this book but read it because a reading group I belong to selected it. I agree with most of what it says, but was underwhelmed by what it accomplished.
He has compiled an impressive catalog of people who have accomplished excellent feats in arts, science, and technology.
He has a long section arguing that the disproportionate number of dead white males in his list is not a result of bias. Most of this just repeats what has been said many times before. He appears do have done more than most to check authorities of other cultures to verify that their perspective doesn’t conflict with his. But that’s hard to do well (how many different languages does he read well enough to avoid whatever selection biases influence what’s available in English?) and hard for me to verify. He doesn’t ask how his choice of categories (astronomy, medicine, etc) bias his results (I suspect not much).
His most surprising claim is that the rate of accomplishment is declining. He convinced me that he is measuring something that is in fact declining, but didn’t convince me that what he measured is important. I can think of many other ways of trying to measure accomplishment: number of lives saved, number of people whose accomplishment was bought by a million people, number of people whose accomplishment created $100 million in revenues, the Flynn Effect, number of patents, number of peer-reviewed papers, or number of meta–innovations. All of these measures have nontrivial drawbacks, but they illustrate why I find his measure (acclaim by scholars) very incomplete. An incomplete measure may be adequate for conclusions that aren’t very sensitive to the choice of measure (such as the male/female ratio of important people), but when most measures fail to support his conclusion that the rate of accomplishment is declining, his failure to try for a more inclusive measure is disappointing.
His research appears careful to a casual reader, but I found one claim that was definitely not well researched. He thinks that “the practice of medicine became an unambiguous net plus for the patient” around the 1920s or 1930s. He cites no sources for this claim, and if he had found the best studies on the subject he’d see lots of uncertainty about whether it has yet become a net plus.

Posts navigation

← Ending Aging
Archaic Science Fiction →
  • Recent Posts

    • The Ageless Brain
    • AI 2027 Thoughts
    • Should AIs be Encouraged to Cooperate?
    • Rain of Tariffs
    • Notes from the TRIIM-X Clinical Trial
    • AI Markets on Manifold
    • Retrospective on my Investing Advice
    • Medical Windfall Prizes
  • Recent Comments

    • The Ageless Brain | Bayesian Investor Blog on The End of Alzheimer’s
    • AI 2027 Thoughts | Bayesian Investor Blog on AI Fire Alarm Scenarios
    • Notes from the TRIIM-X Clinical Trial | Bayesian Investor Blog on True Age
    • Bruce Smith on Retrospective on my Investing Advice
    • Retrospective on my Investing Advice | Bayesian Investor Blog on Advice for Buy-and-Hold Investors
  • Tags

    aging amm autism best posts bias brain bubbles CFAR climate communication skills consciousness covid diet effective altruism empires equality ethics evolution existential risks genetics happiness history honesty industrial revolution information economics IQ kelvinism law macroeconomics meditation mind uploading MIRI neuroscience prediction markets prizes psychology rationality relationships risks seasteading status stock market crash transhumanism war willpower
  • Categories

    • Announcements [B] (6)
    • Book Reviews (281)
    • Economics (183)
      • Idea Futures (44)
      • Investing (82)
    • Life, the Universe, and Everything (153)
      • Fermi Paradox (6)
      • Health (111)
      • Humor (11)
    • Movies (2)
    • Politics (196)
      • China (18)
      • Freedom (19)
      • Mideast (14)
      • U.S. Politics (79)
    • Science and Technology (257)
      • Artificial Intelligence (89)
      • Miscellaneous (20)
      • Molecular Assemblers (Advanced Nanotech) (16)
      • The Flynn Effect (16)
      • The Human Mind (111)
      • Virtual Worlds (4)
    • Uncategorized (14)
Proudly powered by WordPress Theme: Parament by Automattic.