Bayesian Investor Blog

Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator

Astronomical Waste

Posted by Peter on June 29, 2007
Posted in: Artificial Intelligence, Fermi Paradox. Tagged: effective altruism, ethics, existential risks.

Nick Bostrom has a good paper on Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development, which argues that under most reasonable ethical systems that aren’t completely selfish or very parochial, our philanthropic activities ought to be devoted primarily toward preventing disasters that would cause the extinction of intelligent life.
Some people who haven’t thought about the Fermi Paradox carefully may overestimate the probability that most of the universe is already occupied by intelligent life. Very high estimates for that probability would invalidate Bostrom’s conclusion, but I haven’t found any plausible arguments that would justify that high a probability.
I don’t want to completely dismiss Malthusian objections that life in the distant future will be barely worth living, but the risk of a Malthusian future would need to be well above 50 percent to substantially alter the optimal focus of philanthropy, and the strongest Malthusian arguments that I can imagine leave much more uncertainty than that. (If I thought I could alter the probability of a Malthusian future, maybe I should devote effort to that. But I don’t currently know where to start).
Thus the conclusion seems like it ought to be too obvious to need repeating, but it’s far enough from our normal experiences that most of us tend to pay inadequate attention to it. So I’m mentioning it in order to remind people (including myself) of the need to devote more of our time to thinking about risks such as those associated with AI or asteroid impacts.

Posts navigation

← Why Not?
Black Rednecks →
  • Recent Posts

    • The Ageless Brain
    • AI 2027 Thoughts
    • Should AIs be Encouraged to Cooperate?
    • Rain of Tariffs
    • Notes from the TRIIM-X Clinical Trial
    • AI Markets on Manifold
    • Retrospective on my Investing Advice
    • Medical Windfall Prizes
  • Recent Comments

    • The Ageless Brain | Bayesian Investor Blog on The End of Alzheimer’s
    • AI 2027 Thoughts | Bayesian Investor Blog on AI Fire Alarm Scenarios
    • Notes from the TRIIM-X Clinical Trial | Bayesian Investor Blog on True Age
    • Bruce Smith on Retrospective on my Investing Advice
    • Retrospective on my Investing Advice | Bayesian Investor Blog on Advice for Buy-and-Hold Investors
  • Tags

    aging amm autism best posts bias brain bubbles CFAR climate communication skills consciousness covid diet effective altruism empires equality ethics evolution existential risks genetics happiness history honesty industrial revolution information economics IQ kelvinism law macroeconomics meditation mind uploading MIRI neuroscience prediction markets prizes psychology rationality relationships risks seasteading status stock market crash transhumanism war willpower
  • Categories

    • Announcements [B] (6)
    • Book Reviews (281)
    • Economics (183)
      • Idea Futures (44)
      • Investing (82)
    • Life, the Universe, and Everything (153)
      • Fermi Paradox (6)
      • Health (111)
      • Humor (11)
    • Movies (2)
    • Politics (196)
      • China (18)
      • Freedom (19)
      • Mideast (14)
      • U.S. Politics (79)
    • Science and Technology (257)
      • Artificial Intelligence (89)
      • Miscellaneous (20)
      • Molecular Assemblers (Advanced Nanotech) (16)
      • The Flynn Effect (16)
      • The Human Mind (111)
      • Virtual Worlds (4)
    • Uncategorized (14)
Proudly powered by WordPress Theme: Parament by Automattic.