Politics

This post is a response to a challenge on Overcoming Bias to spend $10 trillion sensibly.
Here’s my proposed allocation (spending to be spread out over 10-20 years):

  • $5 trillion on drug patent buyouts and prizes for new drugs put in the public domain, with the prizes mostly allocated in proportion to the quality adjusted life years attributable to the drug.
  • $1 trillion on establishing a few dozen separate clusters of seasteads and on facilitating migration of people from poor/oppressive countries by rewarding jurisdictions in proportion to the number of immigrants they accept from poorer / less free regions. (I’m guessing that most of those rewards will go to seasteads, many of which will be created by other people partly in hopes of getting some of these rewards).

    This would also have a side affect of significantly reducing the harm that humans might experience due to global warming or an ice age, since ocean climates have less extreme temperatures, seasteads will probably not depend on rainfall to grow food, and can move somewhat to locations with better temperatures.
  • $1 trillion on improving political systems, mostly through prizes that bear some resemblance to The Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership (but not limited to democratically elected leaders and not limited to Africa). If the top 100 or so politicians in about 100 countries are eligible, I could set the average reward at about $100 million per person. Of course, nowhere near all of them will qualify, so a fair amount will be left over for those not yet in office.
  • $0.5 trillion on subsidizing trading on prediction markets that are designed to enable futarchy. This level of subsidy is far enough from anything that has been tried that there’s no way to guess whether this is a wasteful level.
  • $1 trillion existential risks
    Some unknown fraction of this would go to persuading people not to work on AGI without providing arguments that they will produce a safe goal system for any AI they create. Once I’m satisfied that the risks associated with AI are under control, much of the remaining money will go toward establishing societies in the asteroid belt and then outside the solar system.
  • $0.5 trillion on communications / computing hardware for everyone who can’t currently afford that.
  • $1 trillion I’d save for ideas I think of later.

I’m not counting a bunch of other projects that would use up less than $100 billion since they’re small enough to fit in the rounding errors of the ones I’ve counted (the Methuselah Mouse prize, desalinization and other water purification technologies, developing nanotech, preparing for the risks of nanotech, uploading, cryonics, nature preserves, etc).

Cultural Difference

Cultural Difference
From a book called Apples are from Kazakhstan, a conversation in which the author reacts to a trendy Almaty restaurant’s nostalgic depiction of Lenin and Stalin:

“It’s inconceivable to think of a Nazi beer cellar in Berlin hung with swastikas, with the waiters dressed up as SS officers handing out postcards of Goebbels, and a bust of ‘Uncle Adolf’ in the corner.”
“They don’t have a place like that?” my friend asked

Book review: Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang.
This book attacks orthodoxies of the World Bank, IMF, WTO, neo-liberal economists, free-market economists, and pundits such as Thomas Friedman. Chang often implies that they all share a common orthodoxy, but the ideas he attacks are usually questioned by some of those groups.
His criticisms of the World Bank, IMF, and WTO are often correct, but it shouldn’t be surprising that they serve goals that don’t coincide with needs of developing countries.
His most important argument is a defense of mercantilist protection of infant industries. He shows that the evidence on the effects of tariffs is sufficiently mixed that his selective use of examples can give the impression that he has shown tariffs promote economic growth in developing countries. He makes claims of the form “X would have failed without protection”, but doesn’t say why his ability to predict failure is more reliable than other alleged experts (e.g. MITI’s belief that Honda would fail in the auto business). This provoked me into searching for more complete tests of the effects of tariffs. The evidence I found confirms that his confidence that tariffs work is foolish, but I was surprised to find that the evidence is too unclear to provide a guide to policy decision.
Chang has a good argument that the common orthodoxy about comparative advantage is a less conclusive reason for removing tariffs than it appears. But his attempts to describe a mechanism by which tariffs can be beneficial are naive. He talks about government protecting infant industries the way a parent protects a child, without any analysis of the political forces which cause governments to protect entrenched declining industries at the expense of less politically powerful startups.
He gives only vague hints about how to distinguish the tariffs he thinks are good from bad tariffs. I’ll offer a suggestion: any tariff that is designed to meet his notion of a good tariff should be set by statute to decrease to zero over a period of about a decade and never be reinstated for an industry to which they’ve been applied under this statute.
His complaints about privatizing state-owned enterprises contain some valid points. I wish people didn’t assume government and stockholder control are the only available choices. Having governments spin off enterprises as nonprofits would sometimes (often?) be a better option.
His comments about how patents and copyright affect developing countries are mostly correct. But he underestimates our dependence on drug patents when he implies that the 57% of drug research funding that comes from not-for-profit sources means we could get 57% of the results without commercial funding. A drug startup that will go broke if it doesn’t produce something valuable does different work than someone whose success comes from publishing papers.
Chang’s modest suggestions for patent reform would provide much less improvement than ideas I’ve found by reading free-market economists (e.g. prizes instead of patents, or Kremer’s patent buyout proposal).
His comments about inflation assume that it produces some benefits, but he shows no awareness of the economic literature which disputes that assumption.
He has plausible hypotheses that increasing market forces might cause an increase in corruption in some countries. I see no easy way to estimate the size of these effects.
His arguments that cultures change in response to economic change more than most people realize are strong enough to lower my opinion of Fukuyama’s book Trust (Fukuyama seems unaware that the German current high-trust culture is very different from a century ago when they had a reputation for dishonesty). But Chang exaggerates a lot when he says immigrants from poor countries working much harder in rich countries proves that work habits result from economic conditions rather than culture – those immigrants are unlikely to be typical of the culture they came from.

Seasteading Institute

When I first heard and read about Seasteading, I thought it was mostly well thought out, but that it hadn’t reached its goal of providing a business plan that would support a small group of non-wealthy people to set up the first seastead in international waters.
Now Peter Thiel has donated $500,000 to fund a new organization called The Seasteading Institute. My intuition is that it will take somewhere between $2 million and $20 million of charitable contributions to reach the threshold of resources needed for a seastead to become viable in international waters. But the first big donation is typically harder for a nonprofit to get than subsequent donations, and the size of this initial donation (with only a rudimentary organization) suggests that there’s a good chance that more money can be raised once more specific plans are developed and more people indicate commitments to implement them.

Book review: The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World by Alan Greenspan.
The first half of this book provides a decent history of the past 40 years, with a few special insights such as descriptions of how most presidents in that period worked (he’s one of the least partisan people to have worked with most of them). The second half is a discussion of economics of rather mixed quality (both in terms of wisdom and ability to put the reader to sleep).
He comes across as a rather ordinary person whose private thoughts are little more interesting that his congressional testimony.
One of the strangest sections describes the problems he worried would result from a projected paydown of all federal government debt. He does claim to have been careful not to forget the possibility those forecasts could be mistaken. But his failure to mention ways that forecasts of Social Security deficits could be way off suggests he hasn’t learned much from that mistake.
He mentions a “conundrum” of falling long-term interest rates in 2004-2005, when he had expected that rising short-term rates would push up long-term rates. I find his main explanation rather weak (it involves technology induced job insecurity leading to lower inflation expectations). But he then goes on to describe a better explanation (but is vague about whether he believes it explains the conundrum): the massive savings increase caused largely by rapid growth in China. I suspect this is a powerful enough force that Deng Xiaoping deserves more credit than Greenspan for the results that inspired the label Maestro.
The book is often more notable for what it evades than what it says. It says nothing about his inflationary policies in 2003-2004 or his favorable comments about ARMs and how they contributed to the housing bubble.
He gives a brief explanation of how Ayn Rand converted him to an Objectivist by pointing out a flaw in his existing worldview, but he is vague about his drift away from Objectivism. His description of the 1995 government “shutdown” as a crisis is fairly strong evidence of a non-Randian worldview, but mostly he tries to avoid controversies between libertarianism and the policies of politicians he likes.
He often praises markets’ abilities to signal valuable information, yet when claiming that the invasion of Iraq was “about oil”, he neglects to mention the relevant market prices. Those prices appear to discredit his position (see Leigh, Wolfers and Zitzewitz’ paper What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?).
He argues against new hedge fund regulations on the grounds that hedge funds change their positions faster than regulators can react. He is right about the regulations that he imagines, but it’s unfortunate that he stops there. The biggest financial problems involve positions that can’t be liquidated in a few weeks. It seem like it ought to be possible for accounting standards to provide better ways for institutions to communicate to their investors how leveraged they are and how sensitive their equity is to changes in important economic variables.
He argues against using econometric models to set Fed policy, citing real problems with measuring things like NAIRU and GDP, but if he was really interested in scientifically optimizing Fed policy, why didn’t he try to create models based on more relevant and timelier data (such as from the ISM?) the way he did when he had a job that depended on providing business with useful measures? Maybe he couldn’t have become Fed chairman if he had that kind of desire.
I listened to the cd version of this book because I got it as a present and listening to it while driving had essentially no cost. I wouldn’t have bought it or read the dead tree version.

Iraq policies

Since mideast military policy appears to be one of the most important issues in this presidential campaign, I’m mentioning the best criticisms I’ve seen of the leading candidates’ plans:
Obama Imitates Olmert points out the problems with expecting air power to help the U.S. retain some control over Iraq (i.e. if Obama will withdraw troops from Iraq, he ought to give up hope of influencing whatever violence is left behind).
The amount of money that the U.S. has apparently needed to pay the enemy to stop fighting raises serious doubts about McCain’s hope that Iraq is being stabilized in any sustainable way (HT David Brin).

Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) has introduced a bill to create prizes for carbon sequestration:

This is how it would work. There would be four different levels of prizes. The first level award would go to the public or private entity that could first demonstrate a design for a successful technology that could remove and permanently sequester greenhouse gases. Second, there would be a prize for a lab scale demonstration project of the technology that accomplishes the same thing. Third, there would be an award for demonstrating the technology to remove and permanently sequester greenhouse gases that is operational at a larger, working model scale. Finally, there would be an award for whoever could demonstrate the technology to remove and permanently sequester greenhouse gases on a commercially viable scale.

It sounds like many important details would be decided by a federal commission. The prizes could have many of the promises and drawbacks of Virgin Earth Challenge.
The first three levels of the prizes appear to create incentives to create designs with little regard for commercial feasibility. If those prizes are large, they might end up rewarding technologies that are too expensive to be worth using. Small prizes might have little trouble with this due to inventors not wanting to spend much money to win the prizes, but I’d still have concerns about inventors paying little attention to reliability and maintenance costs. The fourth level appears more promising.
Bureaucrats are likely to put more effort into clarifying prize rules that the Virgin Earth group did. But it’s unclear whether any approaches that a government agency is likely to recommend will do a decent job of translating the “commercially viable” goal into a clear enough set of rules that inventors will be able to predict how the prizes will be awarded.
My advice for the commission, should it be created, is that it tie the prizes to actual amounts of carbon removed from the atmosphere over some pre-specified period, or to estimates of those amounts derived from a prediction market.
(HT Jim Manzi).

The Politimetrics provides implied probabilities of Clinton or Obama winning in November if they get the nomination, derived from Intrade prices. I’m surprised that it’s been showing recently that the difference in their electabilities has been mostly zero, with occasional indications that Clinton is slightly more electable. Most other sources of information appear to suggest that Obama has more support than Clinton among independents and Republicans.
I just did a little trading to help move the market toward showing Obama as more electable by replacing my small bet against Clinton being nominated with a bet against her becoming president, but the amount I’m willing to trade was small enough that the markets moved in the opposite direction (i.e. showed increased Clinton electability).
What could cause the markets to indicate knowledge that conflicts with what I expect?
It could be that several limitations of Intrade impair market efficiency, such as not making it easy to see what those of us who have noticed the Politimetrics site see, or having margin requirements that are not conducive to exploiting inefficiencies of this nature (even if I were more confident that the market is wrong, the expected return on investment isn’t enough to persuade me to make large trades).
It could be that Obama is sufficiently unusual that there’s more uncertainty in how he will do, so that while the most likely result is that he’d get more votes than Clinton would, there’s a greater chance of a negative surprise with him.
It could be that Clinton is expected to be sufficiently vicious if she’s losing that she would hurt Obama before giving up.
But the history shown on the Politimetrics site has swings that seem unexplained by these guesses.

Book review: Poverty and Discrimination by Kevin Lang.
This book is designed to make you feel less sure of your knowledge, and it succeeds in that goal. That’s a worthy accomplishment, although it provides much less satisfaction than a book that provides a grand vision for solving problems would. At some abstract intellectual level I liked the book, but my gut feelings often told me that reading the book was unrewarding work that I shouldn’t do unless it was assigned reading for a course I needed.
The book will dissatisfy anyone who wants to view politics as a fight between good and evil. For many issues such as the minimum wage, he provides strong arguments that the effects are small enough that we should doubt whether the issue is worth fighting about.
He gives good explanations of why it’s hard to even have clear concepts of poverty and discrimination by providing examples of how seemingly trivial or unobservable differences can create results that our intuitions say are important to our moral rules.
He provides clear evidence that some discrimination still exists, and then thoroughly explains why there’s large uncertainty about how harmful it is. He presents one moderately unrealistic model in which discrimination is common but doesn’t affect wages. Then he presents a somewhat more realistic model in which a tiny bit of discrimination produces large wage differences. But those wage differences may overstate the harm done, because they’re partly due to minorities spending less on education and to women pursuing careers in lower risk occupations or careers which allow more flexibility to take time off.
There are only a handful of places where I doubted his objectivity.
He reports one study showing evidence of racial discrimination in home loans, but fails to mention any of the contrary evidence such as the Anderson and Vanderhoff paper showing higher marginal default rates for blacks.
The final few pages on policy implications seem poorly thought out compared to the rest of the book (he says that’s the least important chapter of the book). He claims that income taxes on the bottom quintile can be reduced to zero by a 10% increase on the top quintile, but that claim depends on assumptions about how reported income changes in response to tax increases. He doesn’t indicate what assumptions his claim depends on.
He claims “The high rate of incarceration in the United States and the high level of inequality are related.” He gives a plausible theory about why inequality causes the wealthy in some countries to spend a lot protecting their wealth from the poor, but provides no evidence connecting that theory to U.S. incarceration rates.

Early this week, the Federal Reserve Board lowered interest rates at an unexpected time by a surprisingly large amount.
I see three possible explanations, which I think are about equally likely.

  • The Fed has evidence that the economy is slowing more than markets have realized.
  • The Fed has evidence that some big financial institutions have troubles that are endangering the careers of some influential people, and is bailing out those institutions in hopes that those people will use their influence to enhance the job security of the people in charge of the Fed.
  • Bernanke isn’t interested in the kind of publicity he can get by maximizing the total number of rate cuts. He realizes that a steady, predictable series of small rate cuts doesn’t stimulate the economy as well as cutting rates far enough that it isn’t easy to predict that more rate cuts will be needed (for one thing, making further rate cuts predictable creates incentives to postpone borrowing to when rates are lower). If that’s what’s happening, it’s not going to work as well as he would like this time, because the markets think the Fed is following the predictable rate cut strategy that gives them publicity for doing something at the time that the average person is most concerned about recession.

In related news, Singapore has a system which is designed to stabilize the economy rather than to provide politicians with opportunities to claim credit for doing something about the economy.
China is imposing widespread price controls and suffering power shortages which hinder production. If China were like the U.S., I’d say it’s trying to recreate the experience the U.S. had in the early 1970s. But the way Chinese politics work, the central government probably will allow local authorities to use a lot of discretion in enforcing the price controls, so the price controls will probably only produce shortages in a few industries that are dominated by large state-owned firms.