News reports plus the pattern of crude oil fluctuations indicate that the large price increases around May and June were due mainly to Chinese desperation to guarantee a larger than normal margin of safety during the Olympics, not manipulation (although the results bear a good deal of resemblance to the results of manipulation).
2 comments on “Oil Volatility”
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If that’s the case, why wouldn’t the Chinese have announced that they were doing so in order to be able to buy futures cheaper? If people knew they were going to buy, there would have been no bubble.
It’s not all that easy to predict how such an announcement would affect prices. I suspect it depends on things like the elasticity of supply and how far in advance they could announce how much they needed. Warren Buffet buying stocks provides a good example of a case where an advance announcement would be foolish.
The Chinese government has enough of a habit of secrecy that they might well keep secrets even if transparency would serve them better (e.g. SARS).