Bayesian Investor Blog

Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator

Kurzweil and Human Capital

Posted by Peter on October 26, 2005
Posted in: Economics. Tagged: mind uploading, risks.

Several posts on EconLog recently have assumed that human capital will be sufficient for their children to prosper in a Kurzweilian future.
That is a very risky assumption. Human capital has historically been a good investment largely because there have been few innovations that made it easier to produce more humans. Kurzweil’s forecasts imply that around 2040 or 2050 the cost of duplicating a human-equivalent intelligence will plunge. Which means that for most kinds of jobs, the supply of labor should be expected to become nearly unlimited, and in the absence of substantial monopoly, we should expect the price of labor under a Kurzweil scenario to approach zero. Maybe something will guarantee everyone a luxurious lifestyle in a world where there’s little reason for salaries, but I’d rather hedge my bets and accumulate financial assets.
See Robin Hanson’s analysis for a more detailed argument.

Posts navigation

← Gay Marriage
Judicial Bias →
  • Recent Posts

    • The Death of Cancer
    • Future-Generation Government
    • AI-Oriented Investments
    • An Optimistic Scenario for Taiwan
    • Further Thoughts on AI Ethics
    • Waking up to AGI
    • Super Agers
    • Are Intelligent Agents More Ethical?
  • Recent Comments

    • The Death of Cancer | Bayesian Investor Blog on Super Agers
    • David Schneider-Joseph on AI-Oriented Investments
    • Peter on AI-Oriented Investments
    • Future-Generation Government | Bayesian Investor Blog on Intangibles
    • Peter on Waking up to AGI
  • Tags

    aging amm autism best posts bias brain bubbles CFAR climate communication skills consciousness covid diet effective altruism empires equality ethics evolution existential risks genetics happiness history honesty industrial revolution information economics IQ kelvinism law macroeconomics meditation mind uploading MIRI neuroscience prediction markets prizes psychology rationality relationships risks seasteading status stock market crash transhumanism war willpower
  • Categories

    • Announcements [B] (6)
    • Book Reviews (284)
    • Economics (187)
      • Idea Futures (44)
      • Investing (85)
    • Life, the Universe, and Everything (155)
      • Fermi Paradox (6)
      • Health (113)
      • Humor (11)
    • Movies (2)
    • Politics (201)
      • China (19)
      • Freedom (19)
      • Mideast (14)
      • U.S. Politics (82)
    • Science and Technology (261)
      • Artificial Intelligence (93)
      • Miscellaneous (20)
      • Molecular Assemblers (Advanced Nanotech) (16)
      • The Flynn Effect (16)
      • The Human Mind (111)
      • Virtual Worlds (4)
    • Uncategorized (14)
Proudly powered by WordPress Theme: Parament by Automattic.