Bayesian Investor Blog

For a long time I’ve thought that the weakest part of the argument for Futarchy is the problem of choosing a good measure of national welfare. Democracy is sufficiently subject to manipulation by demagogues (e.g. convincing voters that Saddam had some responsibility for Sept. 11 or that confiscating guns will make us safer) that turning politicized disputes about factual questions over to an institution that maximizes GDP would probably be an improvement even if the flaws in using GDP cause it to do foolish things like preferring Microsoft’s commercial crap to free alternatives. But it would be hard to convince people addicted to having democratic processes decide questions of fact to ignore such flaws.
I want to propose that such a system should be designed to maximize life expectancy instead. That measure seems to correlate fairly well with a number of things we value such as wealth and happiness. I’m not sure how it correlates with equality, and suspect it is imperfect at putting the optimal weight on increasing that, so I’m not claiming it’s a utopian solution. But I doubt there’s much risk that maximizing lifespans would increase inequality.
It would create pressures to keep peoples’ hearts beating when they’re brain-dead, and to put undesirable restrictions on activities such as skiing and rock-climbing. But it’s not obvious why that would be significantly different from the biases of existing governments.