{"id":254,"date":"2008-09-07T18:00:34","date_gmt":"2008-09-08T02:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/2008\/09\/07\/intrade-notes\/"},"modified":"2015-10-06T13:55:40","modified_gmt":"2015-10-06T21:55:40","slug":"intrade-notes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/2008\/09\/07\/intrade-notes\/","title":{"rendered":"Intrade Notes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>To deter any suspicion that the comparisons I plan to make between <a href=\"http:\/\/www.intrade.com\">Intrade&#8217;s<\/a> predictions and polls are comparisons I selected to make Intrade look good, I&#8217;m announcing now that I intend to use <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2008\/06\/new-map.html\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a> as the primary poll aggregator. I intend to pay attention to predictions that are more long-term than <a href=\"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/2004\/11\/03\/tradesports_compared_to_the_pollsters\/\">I focused in 2004<\/a>, so the comparison I&#8217;ll attach the most importance to will be based on the first snapshot I took of FiveThirtyEight.com&#8217;s state by state projections, which was on July 24.<\/p>\n<p>Also, as of last week, one of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.overcomingbias.com\/2008\/01\/presidential-de.html\">Presidential Decision Markets<\/a> that I&#8217;m subsidizing, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.intrade.com\/aav2\/trading\/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=565200\">DEM.PRES-OIL.FUTURES<\/a>, has attracted enough trading (I suspect from one large trader) to make me reasonably confident that it&#8217;s showing the effects of trader opinion rather than the effects of my <a href=\"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/amm\/\">automated market maker<\/a> (saying that oil futures will drop if the Democratic candidate wins, and rise if he loses).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To deter any suspicion that the comparisons I plan to make between Intrade&#8217;s predictions and polls are comparisons I selected to make Intrade look good, I&#8217;m announcing now that I intend to use FiveThirtyEight.com as the primary poll aggregator. I intend to pay attention to predictions that are more long-term than I focused in 2004, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[17,15],"tags":[36,35,124],"class_list":["post-254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-if","category-us","tag-2008-election","tag-polls","tag-prediction-markets"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p80O1l-46","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":618,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254\/revisions\/618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bayesianinvestor.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}